myfinancialmarket.com

First things first:

The overall stock market, as defined by Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund has lost -8.14% through the beginning of Valentine’s weekend. Definitely the Second Mouse is still waiting for fresh cheese, while the Early Bird investor is sporting a sling on it’s wing. It is simply hard to say if now is a great time to buy, or to continue waiting in time.

I can only say what I have done since the beginning of the year so as not to suggest I’m offering any advice, but just to describe what I am doing investment wise. As I mentioned in previous Blogs, I ended up the year with a sizable cash position. At the very last day of trading in 2008 I purchased equal amounts of 6 Mutual Funds (see previous Blog) , something I do every year, and hold these funds to the end of the year. I started the year with just a few ETF’s in a trading portfolio, not a hold to the end of year group, mostly bond ETF’s. I now own AGG, LQD, GLD, FXF and CIU ETF’s for my ETF portfolio. Tuesday I will be adding TIP to the ETF portfolio group. This group can expand to 10 ETF’s, so I could and will add more as buy signals appear. The YTD performance is - 0.83% for the ETF model. The 6 Mutual Fund holds on the other hand have lost -6.20% again (yet beating the overall Market) showing the ETF trading group doing better than just holding Mutual Funds.

I also have a stock trading portfolio based on earnings surprises which started the year with 100% cash and had been that way for several months before that. Just two weeks ago, stock TSYS was purchased and on this next Tues., at the market open I’ll be buying CKSW. Keep in mind that these are short term trades, not day trades, and I may sell them after any adverse market action. The performance to date is a postive + 0.7%, which if this portfolio continues this way will beat out the market again.

Bottom line is I’m cautious, yet adding a few positions as I write this.

Don

When starting today’s Blog, I thought of a song from the 1950’s song by a popular group of the time, the Kingston Trio who were well known then, especially in the San Francisco area. The song tells of a man named Charlie who was trapped on Boston’s (what was then known as the) M.T.A. as he didn’t have sufficient change to exit the train. I have taken a lot of liberty in altering the words quite a bit… listen in as they say.

Spoken Words:

…These are the times that try men’s souls. In the course of our nation’s history, the people of this country have invested hard earned money for their future. Today, a new crisis has arisen. The Stock Market has taken away so much of these investments…

(Eight bar guitar, banjo introduction) — now starts the singing.

…Well, let me tell you of the story of a man named Charley on a tragic and fateful day.
He put 10% into his IRA, another amount into his 401K and kissed his wife and family, and went to work for more pay…
Chorus:
Well, did his IRA or 401K ever grow? No, it never returned and its fate is still unknown.

…The definitely modified song is now finished.

It’s that last part of the verse however, “its fate is still unknown.” that faces us all now when trying to figure out just where our economy will go and specificially where our investments are going.

you can find the correct lyrics to M.T.A at http://www.musicsonglyrics.com/K/kingstontriolyrics/kingstontriomtalyrics.htm

Then if you are really curious, here is a uTube video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VMSGrY-IlU

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